What's actually happening to volume
Google's reported query volume continues to grow slowly. ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Claude are adding queries on top of Google, not pulling them away in equal measure. Total search demand across all surfaces is up materially.
What's down is monetisable click volume. AI Overviews, featured snippets, and rich results increasingly satisfy queries on the SERP without requiring a click. The pages that ranked #1 for an informational query in 2022 are still ranking, but they receive 30–60% fewer clicks because Google or an AI surface is answering the question first.
The pattern by query type
Top-of-funnel informational queries ('what is X', 'how does Y work'): organic clicks down 20–40% versus 2023 baseline across measured portfolios. AI Overviews and zero-click panels are eating most of the loss.
Comparison and commercial-investigation queries ('best X for Y', 'X vs Y'): clicks roughly flat. AI Overviews appear but users still click through to see detail.
Bottom-funnel and transactional queries ('buy X', 'X near me', 'X pricing'): clicks flat or modestly up. Google still surfaces the 10 blue links here, and intent is high enough that users click through regardless.
What this means for content investment
Shift content investment toward bottom-funnel and commercial-intent queries where click volume is preserved. Don't abandon top-of-funnel content — it still earns brand awareness and AI-citation eligibility — but stop measuring it primarily on click traffic.
Build measurement that captures brand visibility across surfaces, not just Google clicks. Add tracking for AI-referral traffic, monitor branded-search volume as a proxy for assistant exposure, and watch direct traffic for indirect lift from AI citations. Sites that only measure Google clicks consistently underestimate the value of top-of-funnel content in 2026.